
Process by which Federal Reserve (or any other central bank) helps ease
government debt burden by printing money and using it to purchase debt
issued by the government.
Alas,
with this issue, Pocket MBA may have scheduled a date with The Peter
Principle. Hey get a non-economist to write about finance, and
eventually he'll just sit there, scratching his head and drooling.
We'll know in a few paragraphs whether debt monetization is my
Waterloo. If so, well, it's been a great seven years, and, heck, the
job market is improving anyway. Otherwise, volume 8 beckons in just a
couple short weeks.
Turn on finance television and you'll hear all about
monetizing debt, and whether this process is the last stop toward the
end of the dollar as a reserve currency, or even a currency at all.
Even as the economy rebounds, we are mired in debt. How can you pay off
trillions? Is it as simple as turning your debt into money? And what
does that mean?
The term itself, to monetize, seems easy enough. According to Merriam
Webster's Online dictionary, there are three definitions for monetize:
Pocket MBA could monetize the shirt on its back by selling it to
you for $10. That is, we can assign a value to it. But neither the
shirt, nor what you pay for it is debt. We're just engaged in a
transaction where we trade a shirt for a piece of paper that says $10
on it. Arguably, when I sell you my shirt, we're doing definition
three.
And while the head scratching has begun, PMBA is pretty sure
that when we hear talk of monetizing the debt of the United States,
we're talking about definition number two — because debt monetization
involves the government selling debt to the Federal Reserve, which then
prints new money for the government to use for paying interest on the
bonds (debt) we've sold to foreign countries, like China. This is as
opposed to, say, collecting taxes to pay the debt, which was the
time-honored way of doing so before our fiat money system made printing
new money a much easier way of achieving the same end.
Of course, definition one shouldn't be lost in the shuffle — countries
have been monetizing gold and silver for a long time. In fact, under
the Bretton Woods System, the U.S. dollar was a monetization of gold.
Of course, as we saw last week, our money, now, has no intrinsic value,
other than the belief by others that it has value and their demand for
it that results from our economic power.
Monetizing debt doesn't have to be bad; it's just that when you have a
devalued currency and a lot of debt to begin with, the monetization
process can kill whatever value the currency has left, as the money
printing process devalues the currency further. Pocket MBA will leave
it to experts to determine whether and to what extent we are currently
monetizing our debt. Just know that many think it is happening and that
it will simply add to our economic woes, rather than solve them.
So how does monetizing the debt work? That is, how do we turn
debt into money to pay off other debt? Note, only an entity with the
power to print money can do this trick. Pocket MBA has some credit card
debt, but has no way to monetize it. PMBA simply writes, gets paid and
pays some of the money over to the credit card issuer. If Pocket MBA
had a printing press in its basement, it could simply print enough
money to pay the debt. Even that is not the same thing the federal
government, in conjunction with the Fed, can pull off.
In true PMBA fashion, we're going to oversimplify this just so
we can get a basic understanding of what debt monetization means. We'll
avoid the variety of debt held by the public, as well as the accounting
techniques that the Fed has to apply to achieve the monetization feat.
Stripped to its most basic, here's what happens. First, you assume a
country in debt — not hard to do. Being in debt simply means that the
expenditures of the government outstrip its revenues (i.e. the tax
base). In such a situation, the government (via the Department of the
Treasury) can borrow money from other countries to pay for the
shortfall by issuing treasury bonds, on which it will pay interest
until maturity. The government can do this indefinitely so long as the
foreign countries buy the debt and so long as the government can pay
the interest on the debt.
In our current economic situation, where we've had a drying up
of consumer credit and demand, the federal government has moved to fill
the void by spending ever more money; it does so by issuing more debt.
Leave aside the problem that our tax base can't cover the excess debt —
we can always raise taxes, but politicians are loathe to do so,
especially in a down economy. But let's assume that foreign entities
refuse to buy any more government debt, or we decide that we can't pay
for it because the tax base can't support the debt service. Then what?
Enter the Federal Reserve. In order for this trick to work, you have to
remember that the Fed is technically not part of the government, even
though it seems like it is.
The Department of the Treasury can issue the same bonds it was
selling to foreign governments, but instead of selling to them, it
sells them to the Federal Reserve. Of course, the Fed can't raise
taxes; it has no citizenry; it's a bank. But one thing the Fed can do
is create actual fiat money, a feat the federal government can't do. In
order to pay for the treasury bonds, the Fed simply creates new money,
which it turns over to the Department of the Treasury which puts it
into circulation for paying off other debts. Presto change-o, our debt
has become monetized. That is, we've paid debt by issuing debt.
Of course, the problem with this is, as we saw last week in our
discussion of fiat money, that printing ever more fiat money causes
inflation, even hyperinflation. Substantial debt monetization is,
therefore, almost by definition, inflationary. (In fact, that is the
point of it — paying debt in cheaper dollars.) But that hurts consumers
unless the Fed can figure out how to suck the money back in, which it
would do by raising interest rates sky-high — at least that's how Paul
Volcker did it in the early 1980s. The irony is that we have been
fighting deflation risk this entire year. See
Volume 7, No. 1.
And as monetization is inflationary, it is certainly a tool to fight
deflation, as well. This is one reason some say that the Fed is
methodically monetizing the debt — to produce inflation. If you think
deflation is worse than inflation, then monetizing the debt, along with
all other forms of printing money is a qualified good, at least in the
short run. But for the long-term, it's a pickle.
Anyway, that's monetizing the debt, PMBA style — if we're back
here the week after New Year's, that means we got this basically right
— even if I do get a bunch of comments and corrections from readers
(and I always welcome them, especially on topics like this that some of
you have actual experience with). Now, off to enjoy the Holidays, but
unable to monetize them.
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